One of the most common mistakes you'll find in a casino is the gambler's fallacy. The gambler's fallacy is the idea that future outcomes can be predicted based on previous results. In the roulette for instance, this would mean that you can predict that there is a higher chance of a number turning up because it hasn't all night.
Unfortunately, this is not true. In fact, it's far from it. Let's take a simple example – suppose you flip a coin 19 times, and in all flips the result was heads. Is there anything that will change the fact that for 20th flip, the chances of wither outcome is still 50/50? The answer is no, because no matter what the outcomes were before – they can't affect the coin. The coin doesn't have a memory of any past events that would make it change the outcome.
The same logic applies for the roulette, or any other game you can think off in a casino. Every time the wheel is spun it's an isolated event, meaning that the previous outcomes have no effect on the current spin. The chances of any number turning up is still 1/37. it's true that over a long period of time, you can expect that each number will turn up once every 37 spins, but this is an average. This can't apply for such a small scale as one table for one night, or even a week for that matter.
The gambler's fallacy can make some pretty serious damage if you believe in it. Imagine betting too much money on a certain number because of it and losing again and again. It's no different from betting arbitrarily. Stay away from this false notion and don't let anyone convince you otherwise – this just doesn't work. |